Transfer window shopping: why Alexander Isak is the dream – and will likely remain just that

In the summer of 2022, Newcastle forward Callum Wilson injured his hamstring, setting in motion a sequence of events that has culminated in Alexander Isak transforming into one of the most sought-after players in world football.

Newcastle’s controversial Saudi Arabia-led takeover in 2021, with the Public Investment Fund buying the club in a deal worth just over £300 million, meant it could target players it hadn’t previously.  When a football team is bankrolled by the world’s richest ownership, there is — as then Newcastle sporting director Dan Ashworth said — “no ceiling” on its potential.

But the club was reportedly unsure about recruiting Isak. Although the Swedish striker looked to have all the physical attributes elite centre-forwards typically possess — speed, power, ball-striking — his numbers in the Spanish top flight weren’t off the charts. Given his return of just six goals in 32 games for Real Sociedad in 2021-22, there was a feeling that he was not ready for a top-level move, especially at the £60 million price-tag the LaLiga club was quoting. 

Trajectory-altering move

But Wilson’s injury changed Newcastle’s thinking and seemingly forced its hand — the club shattered its transfer record in August 2022. The rest is history. Isak has developed over the last three years into Tyneside’s crown jewel: a stunningly complete No. 9 with a love for big games, capable of terrorising defences and deciding matches with moments of individual brilliance.

The 6’3” sharpshooter recently helped Newcastle win its first major domestic trophy in 70 years, scoring what turned out to be the match-winner in the 2-1 victory over Liverpool in the League Cup final at Wembley. His superb drilled first-time finish ensured that a club that had endured five relegations to the second tier since its last trophy finally had a moment to celebrate.

Indeed, Isak’s exploits have even led to suggestions that Newcastle is a one-man team. When this view was put to Magpies manager Eddie Howe, he didn’t agree. But he did talk up his star attacker’s value to the side. “We recognise Alex’s strengths and his abilities,” said Howe. “I don’t think we are a one-man team, I will never classify us in that bracket, but Alex brings unique qualities in that centre-forward role, in that pivotal middle role that we need.”

The numbers certainly highlight Isak’s importance to Newcastle. Of the top 10 goal scorers in Europe’s top five leagues this season, no player has a higher share of his team’s goals. Both Mohamed Salah and Isak account for 38% of their side’s goals. Both their contributions have been influential. Salah is having a historic season, powering Liverpool’s title charge, while Isak has Newcastle in the reckoning for a spot in next season’s Champions League.

Level raiser: The 6’3” sharpshooter helped Newcastle win its first major domestic trophy in 70 years, scoring what turned out to be the match-winner in the 2-1 victory over Liverpool in the League Cup final at Wembley Stadium. | Photo credit: Getty Images

Level raiser: The 6’3” sharpshooter helped Newcastle win its first major domestic trophy in 70 years, scoring what turned out to be the match-winner in the 2-1 victory over Liverpool in the League Cup final at Wembley Stadium. | Photo credit: Getty Images

Isak’s brace against Nottingham Forest in February saw him reach 50 Premier League goals in 76 games. Only six players, headed by Haaland, have joined the 50-goal club in fewer games. Earlier this month, a typically predatory strike in a 2-1 win over Brentford helped Isak bring up his 20th league goal of the season, the second season in a row he has reached this milestone.

Isak’s acceleration, dribbling and finishing are elite, he has sharpened his movement in the six-yard box and, as per FBref.com, he is in Europe’s top 4% over the last year for goal-creating actions. And yet for all his success in England, especially over the last two seasons, it still doesn’t feel like he has unlocked his full potential. 

On the wish-list

So it’s no surprise that Europe’s heavyweights are monitoring the 25-year-old’s situation at Newcastle, aware that if they can secure his peak years, they will be well positioned to win the biggest trophies. He is, in many ways, the dream signing: the one that makes a team inevitable.

Liverpool and Arsenal are the clubs with the strongest reported links, while Chelsea and Barcelona have not hidden their admiration for the silken-skilled marksman. 

Liverpool and Arsenal, who boast two of the best centre-back pairings in club football, have experienced first-hand the threat Isak carries and the chaos he creates. When defenders of the quality of Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes suffer moments of uncertainty, you know this is a No. 9 worth breaking the bank for.

Isak has always attracted the top clubs. Born in a Stockholm suburb to Eritrean parents, he became Sweden’s youngest international goal-scorer at 17 years and 113 days. During a sparkling debut season at Swedish side AIK in 2016, representatives from 90 European clubs turned up at the ground to watch him play. But while he was certainly available — not to mention affordable — back then, the situation is significantly different now.

Newcastle, understandably, does not want to lose Isak — he is both cult hero and talisman, a point of difference and a profile extremely difficult to replace. When the Tyneside club had to sell last season to ensure it complied with the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), winger Anthony Gordon and central midfielder Bruno Guimaraes were players it reluctantly considered cashing in on. Isak was deemed untouchable.

No cause for panic

Significantly, Newcastle also has an extremely strong hand. Isak’s six-year contract runs until June 30, 2028. While the club wants to tie him down with an extension this summer, there is no cause for panic even if an agreement isn’t reached. It’s also unlikely that the Swede will agitate for a move if the club secures Champions League football with a top-five finish. Newcastle is currently fifth and, with a game in hand and Isak firing, will back itself to make the cut.

Back up that money truck: Given the threat he carries and the chaos he creates even against elite defences, Isak is a centre-forward worth breaking the bank for. But will even a fee in the £120-130 million range tempt Newcastle? | Photo credit: Getty Images

Back up that money truck: Given the threat he carries and the chaos he creates even against elite defences, Isak is a centre-forward worth breaking the bank for. But will even a fee in the £120-130 million range tempt Newcastle? | Photo credit: Getty Images

Isak said last month that he is not in negotiations with Newcastle over a new contract, sparking speculation that he was waiting to see whether the club got into Europe’s top competition before committing his future. But even if Newcastle doesn’t finish in the top five, the price point at which it will even begin to consider answering an interested club’s call is likely to be prohibitive.

There were reports that a fee of £150 million was the minimum, but even a price of £120-130 million can torpedo the transfer budgets of most clubs in a PSR world. The transfer window is known as the silly season, with unreasonable sums having been spent on jaw-dropping moves in the past. But the likelihood of Newcastle not finishing in the top five, Isak pushing to leave and a buying club reaching an agreement with the Magpies appears remote at the moment.

Leave a Comment